The Tamil Nadu Victory Party now has 109 members in the 234-member Assembly after winning the Madurantakam and Dharapuram by-elections on 9 October 2026. The majority mark is 118, so the party is nine short of governing on its own strength. Its numbers have moved in small steps: TVK won 108 seats in May, fell to 107 when Chief Minister Vijay vacated the Tiruchirappalli East seat, and rose to 109 with the two by-election wins. Allies are counted separately, so the government's working strength is higher than the 109 that TVK holds itself. The question for the party is how, and how soon, it can close the nine-seat gap without depending on partners.
The argument that TVK is moving towards a majority of its own is based on the pattern of recent months. Six AIADMK legislators, including the two who have now been re-elected, resigned and joined TVK after the government was formed, and the party has won both seats it contested after defections. Its allies add to its position: Congress has five seats, the Left parties four, the VCK two and the IUML two, according to the May figures reported by South First. Five seats are vacant, at Tiruchirappalli East, Perundurai, Ambasamudram, Viralimalai and Karur, and if TVK won all five it would reach 114, much closer to the 118 mark.
The argument that the path is not guaranteed starts with the delay. The by-elections for the five vacant seats are held up by legal proceedings, so there is no date, and even a clean sweep would leave the party four seats short, so it would need more defections to cross the line. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami has accused TVK of trying to secure a majority by inducing opposition legislators to join it, and the DMK has called the movement horse trading. The by-election results also carried a warning: in Dharapuram the winner's vote fell by 14,259 from May, and her margin over the DMK was 9,471 votes, so each defection carries a political cost.
The count matters for how the state is governed. A government that depends on allies has to negotiate on policy and cabinet seats, while one with its own majority can act alone. For the opposition, every defection weakens its claim to be an alternative, and for voters it raises the question of whether a mandate given to one party can move to another. Five constituencies also have no representative in the Assembly until the courts clear the way. TVK holds about 46.6 percent of the seats against the 50.4 percent needed for a majority, and its allies, Congress with five seats, the Left parties with four, the VCK with two and the IUML with two according to the May figures, together hold 13, more than the nine it lacks, so the government is secure in practice even though it is short on its own.
TVK is closer to a majority than in May but still nine seats short. The pace so far, one seat in five months, suggests the gap will not close quickly.
Featured image: Fort St. George, Chennai, which houses the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly (file photo). Photo: Nigel's Europe & beyond from Birmingham, UK, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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