IMD Says Conditions Favour Further Withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the Start of Northeast Monsoon Rains Over the South Peninsula From 15 October

The India Meteorological Department said on 14 October that conditions were becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country, and for northeast monsoon rains to begin over the south peninsula on 15 October. It also said that, with the onset of the northeast monsoon, a wet spell with isolated heavy falls was likely over many parts of south peninsular India from 14 to 19 October.

In its press release issued at 1:20 pm IST, the department said the line of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon continued to pass through 27.0°N/90.5°E, Dhubri, Kolkata, Angul, Khammam, Honavar and 14.0°N/73.0°E. In the 24 hours to 8:30 am that day, it reported no significant weather over the country except light to moderate rain over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

The bulletin listed an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and a trough running from it to the northwest Bay of Bengal. It did not announce a cyclone or a named low-pressure system. A western disturbance was bringing rain and snow to the north: fairly widespread to widespread rain was forecast over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh on 14 and 15 October, over Punjab on 14 and 15 October, and over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on 15 October.

The department also forecast isolated thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40 to 50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, over Uttarakhand on 14 and 15 October.

The 2026 southwest monsoon has been described by Reuters and the Reserve Bank of India as deficient, a factor that has pushed up food prices. The northeast monsoon brings most of the annual rain to Tamil Nadu, and also affects coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka. Readers in affected districts should follow the latest IMD district warnings, as bulletins are updated daily.

Sources: India Meteorological Department press release, 14 October 2026; IMD all-India forecast bulletin.

Featured image: Monsoon clouds over the Bengal coast (cropped). Photo by Rajarshi MITRA from Mumbai, India, licensed under CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.