India’s crude oil import bill rose 46.3 percent to 90.6 billion dollars in April to September 2026 from 61.9 billion dollars a year earlier, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell cited by ThePrint. The increase came entirely from prices, because crude imports were 122.7 million metric tonnes against 121.8 million a year earlier, a rise of less than 1 percent. The Indian basket averaged 116.09 dollars a barrel in September, against 90.19 dollars in August and 69.61 dollars in September 2025, while Brent averaged 116.77 dollars that month. The September import bill alone was 15.4 billion dollars, about 47 percent more than a year earlier.
The case that this is a serious strain is that the bill is rising much faster than the quantity. The price of the Indian basket in September was about 67 percent higher than a year earlier and 29 percent higher than in August, and India’s import dependence on crude was 88.1 percent in the half year, almost unchanged from 88.3 percent, so the country has little room to cut back. An extra 28.7 billion dollars paid for virtually the same volume has to be financed from export earnings, remittances and capital flows, and the rupee closed at 94.91 against the dollar on Monday. Gas imports also grew: LNG rose 4.4 percent to 18,189 million standard cubic metres and gas import dependency climbed to 52.3 percent from 50.1 percent.
The case that the damage is manageable is also in the data. Volumes were flat, which means that the economy has not been forced to ration fuel, and demand remains strong, with high-speed diesel consumption up 4.9 percent to 47.9 million tonnes and petrol up 7.1 percent to 22.7 million tonnes. India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at 726.027 billion dollars, according to ThePrint’s rupee report, which is a large buffer, even after a weekly fall of 8.578 billion dollars in the week to October 9. The Indian basket averaged 90.19 dollars in August and 116.09 in September, which shows that prices can move quickly in both directions, and a calming of the situation in the Gulf would reduce the bill as fast as it rose.
The numbers matter because oil is the largest single item in India’s import bill and drives inflation, the current account and the value of the rupee. A bill of 15.4 billion dollars in a single month adds pressure on the trade deficit, and with Brent trading above 110 dollars on October 21, the second half of the year could see further increases. For households, higher crude feeds into transport, food and fertiliser costs, and for the government, it raises the cost of subsidies and the temptation to adjust taxes. The 122.7 million tonnes of crude imported in six months, together with a gas import dependency of 52.3 percent, show that India’s energy needs are met largely from abroad, so price changes pass quickly into the national accounts.
India is paying nearly half as much again for the same barrels. Whether the second half of the year is better depends on events far from its shores.
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