Brent crude rose 1.4 percent to 110.40 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate gained 1.4 percent to 99.20 dollars, HDFC Sky reported at 9:56 a.m. India time. The previous close for Brent was 108.79 dollars, and its 52-week high is 111.99 dollars. The rise followed reports that a supertanker caught fire after striking a sea mine south of the Strait of Hormuz and that shipping data show at least 18 vessel attacks over a two-week period, some as far south as the Gulf of Oman, which puts oil loadings outside the Persian Gulf at risk. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and airports in Riyadh and Abha.
The argument that prices could rise further is that the supply risk is physical and widening. A tanker striking a mine and 18 attacks in two weeks are events that affect the cost and availability of shipping, and attacks as far south as the Gulf of Oman reach beyond the Persian Gulf, the route through which a large share of the world’s oil is loaded. Brent is within 1.59 dollars of its 52-week high of 111.99 dollars, and the Iran Revolutionary Guards disputed accounts of vessel conduct, while neither Saudi Arabia nor the Houthis responded to mediation offers, according to the report. US inventory data expected to show a fall of about 800,000 barrels for the week to October 16 add a supportive factor.
The argument that prices may be near a ceiling is based on the previous day’s moves and on the demand side. Brent closed the previous session at 108.79 dollars, down 0.69 percent, and ThePrint reported on Monday that Brent had slipped 1.17 percent to 108.58 dollars, so the price has gone up and down by around a dollar a day, and the latest rise only brings it back to where it was a few sessions ago. The Indian benchmark Nifty 50 opened higher on Wednesday, with the IT sector up 2.2 percent, so equity investors were not panicking.
For India, the stakes are high because the country imports about 88 percent of its crude. HDFC Sky noted that sustained prices above 110 dollars challenge the rupee and inflation and cut into the profits of oil marketing companies and fuel-intensive businesses. With the rupee at about 94.9 to the dollar and the oil import bill already 46 percent higher in the first half of the year, a further rise would widen the current account deficit. Consumers face the prospect of higher fuel and transport costs if the government cannot absorb the increase. A US inventory report for the week to October 16 was expected to show a fall of about 800,000 barrels, and the India VIX stood at 15.13, up 2.64 percent from a previous close of 14.77, which shows that Indian equity traders were watching the risk without panic.
Oil is rising on supply fears and falling on hopes of mediation, and India is exposed to both. The next two weeks in the Gulf will set the price.
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