The AIADMK finished third in both Tamil Nadu by-elections counted on 9 October 2026, in seats it had won in May. The party had held both seats after the May election, which makes the result a loss of ground in territory it considered its own. Its candidate K. Bhanumathi polled 45,280 votes in Dharapuram, behind the winner from TVK, who had 66,841, and the DMK candidate on 57,370. In Madurantakam, S. Kanitha Sampath polled 42,370 votes against 72,149 for TVK and 52,068 for the DMK. The defeat comes after six of the party’s legislators resigned from the Assembly and joined TVK, which forced the two contests, and it raises the question of whether the AIADMK can still claim to lead the opposition. The party had led in the early rounds in Dharapuram before the count turned against it.
The argument that the party has suffered a serious setback rests on the numbers. In Dharapuram the AIADMK was about 12,000 votes behind the DMK and about 21,500 behind the winner, and in Madurantakam it was about 10,000 behind the DMK and nearly 30,000 behind TVK. The AIADMK had led in early counting in Dharapuram, according to The Week, before TVK overtook it in later rounds, which suggests that its support was concentrated in some areas but did not hold across the constituency. The seats were won by the party’s own candidates in May, and the defection of those same legislators took their personal votes with them. Edappadi K. Palaniswami has accused TVK of inducing opposition legislators to join it, but the voters did not punish the defectors.
The counter-argument is that the by-elections were unusual contests and may not predict the party’s future. The two candidates who won had been AIADMK legislators, so the AIADMK was fighting against its own former members, who brought their local organisation with them. The South First report suggests that the absence of an AIADMK-PMK alliance may have mattered in Madurantakam, where Vanniyar voters are significant, so a different alliance could change the result. The party also still has a base of votes: 45,280 in Dharapuram and 42,370 in Madurantakam are not small totals, and they were polled in seats where turnout was reported at 80.30 percent and 86.26 percent.
For Tamil Nadu politics, the contest for the main opposition space is now between the DMK and the AIADMK. The DMK was second in both seats and can claim to be the main challenger to TVK, while the AIADMK has to rebuild its alliances and organisation. How it does that will affect the shape of the next Assembly election. Chief Minister Vijay’s party now holds 109 seats, and the AIADMK has lost six legislators to it, so it is now the third force in two of its former strongholds.
The AIADMK lost two seats and its place in the contest in both. The two defeats came in constituencies where voters had backed the party in May. Whether the loss is permanent will depend on alliances, on defections and on whether the party can keep its remaining legislators.
Featured image: AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami (file photo). Photo: Silverscreen Media Inc. (https://silverscreen.in), CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.