India’s crude oil import bill rose 46.3 percent to $90.6 billion in April to September 2026 from $61.9 billion a year earlier, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, the oil ministry’s data unit, as cited by ThePrint. The increase came almost entirely from prices: imports totalled 122.7 million tonnes, compared with 121.8 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. In September alone the bill was $15.4 billion, 47 percent higher than in September 2025. The Indian basket of crude averaged $116.09 a barrel in September, against $69.61 a year earlier, and Brent averaged $116.77 compared with $68.02. India’s import dependence was 88.1 percent, down from 88.3 percent.
The case that the oil shock is a serious burden is made by the size of the bill and how sharply prices rose. An extra $28.7 billion was spent on crude in six months, about 46 percent more, for essentially the same quantity of oil. The Indian basket’s September average of $116.09 was about 67 percent higher than a year earlier, and it had been $90.19 in August, which means the monthly cost rose by $25.90 a barrel in one month. Domestic production fell to 13.7 million tonnes of crude and condensate from 14.2 million tonnes, and to 12.8 million tonnes of crude oil alone from 13.2 million tonnes, so India relied slightly more on imports. With imports meeting 88.1 percent of needs, the country has little room to offset a price rise by producing more at home.
The case that the pressure may be easing, or is manageable, is in more recent figures. Brent traded at about $108 a barrel on Monday, according to Reuters, below the $116.77 average of September, and it had fallen to $105.56 on October 16, when the rupee rose for a sixth straight session to 94.89 per dollar, ThePrint reported. Volumes were almost unchanged, up only 0.7 percent, so demand did not surge, and the import dependence ratio edged down. The August average of $90.19 a barrel shows that prices can move sharply in both directions within a few weeks, and the proposal by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in six days, if accepted, could lower them further. A stronger rupee also reduces the rupee cost of every barrel.
The import bill matters for India’s economy because crude is a major import and a key driver of inflation, the rupee and the current account. Retail inflation was 5.54 percent in September, above the central bank’s 4 percent target, and the central bank raised its repo rate on October 7, so higher oil prices feed into decisions on interest rates. For households, the effect shows up in fuel, transport and food costs, and for the government in subsidies and taxes. For oil marketing companies, the higher cost of imports is a pressure unless it is passed on.
The bill rose by almost half because prices did, not because India bought more. The next months will show whether prices settle below September’s average or stay near $100.
Image: An oil refinery in Mumbai (file photo). Photo by a Wikimedia Commons contributor, in the public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.